Economics
Who Bears the Cost When the Labor Is Agents
The governance debate over autonomous weapons has a missing layer. When AI systems perform the productive work of war, who captures the value — and who carries the liability?
Duncan Galbraith
Economics
The Upgrade That Wasn't: Q1 GDP, May PCE, and the Numbers Beneath the Numbers
Q1 GDP was revised up to 2.1% on June 25 — but the upgrade came from a lower import figure, not stronger domestic demand. Consumer spending was simultaneously downgraded to 0.5%, the slowest since 2022. May PCE hit 4.1%, a three-year high.
The Signal
The Argument That Hasn't Happened Yet: Warsh, AI Disinflation, and the CPI That Drops Tomorrow
Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed chair today. His case for cutting rates rests on AI disinflation. Goldman Sachs research published this month says AI is currently adding to inflation, not reducing it. The CPI prints tomorrow.
Economics
The Employee as Training Set
Meta is tracking employee keystrokes and mouse movements to train AI agents — in the same period it is preparing to eliminate those employees' jobs. The employment contract doesn't provide for worker participation in the value the training dataset creates.
Economics
Meta's AI Math: What 14,000 Jobs Buy in Compute
Mark Zuckerberg announced on April 23 that Meta would cut approximately 8,000 employees — about 10% of its global workforce — and close around 6,000 open roles, for a total headcount reduction of roughly 14,000 positions beginning May 20. The company's 2026 capital expenditure guidance, issued in
The Signal
The Permanent Variable
Iran's parliamentary speaker says the Strait will not return to its pre-war status. The AI infrastructure capex models assumed the energy shock was a temporary variable. They were wrong about the variable.
The Signal
The Disclosure Gap: When the Investors Who Own AI Companies Cannot See What AI Is Doing to Workers
NY State Comptroller DiNapoli has written to 100 portfolio companies demanding AI workforce transparency disclosures. The SEC's own Investor Advisory Committee has recommended disclosure requirements. The information gap between what companies know and what they tell investors is structural and docu
The Signal
The Recession Frame: What the IMF Just Said About AI's Bet on Growth
The IMF April 2026 WEO is the first primary document from a major multilateral institution framing the current moment as recession risk. The AI buildout was modeled on growth. That model is now being evaluated against a recession baseline.
The Signal
The Seizure: What Happens When the Ceasefire Runs Out
The US seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz Sunday. The ceasefire expires Wednesday. Iran says talks may not happen. This is the update that changes the probability distribution on energy markets and AI capital economics.
The Signal
The Political Economy of €1.10 Diesel
Ireland's government survived a no-confidence vote over fuel prices by 14 votes. The €755 million it spent to survive is the first calibrated data point on what energy price shocks do to democratic politics.
Economics
The Crowding Out: What a $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Means for AI Capital
The financial model underlying the AI infrastructure buildout assumed a particular capital environment: patient institutional money flowing from Gulf sovereign wealth funds, low real interest rates, and a federal government borrowing modestly relative to GDP. In the spring of 2026, all three assumptions are under simultaneous pressure. This piece is
Economics
The Rungs in the Middle: How AI Is Eroding the Pathways, Not Just the Jobs
The AI labor market conversation has a frame problem. It has been organized almost entirely around a single question: which jobs will be destroyed? The question is not wrong. But it is incomplete in a way that matters enormously for the 70 million Americans who do not hold a four-year